PDSNET Market Snapshot

Are we teetering on the edge of a major bear trend? After Friday the 13th of March 2026's S&P500 close at 6632, Wall Street is now down 5% from its all-time record closing high of 6978.6 on the 27th of January 2026. This down-move is similar to the 5% correction which occurred in the first three weeks of November last year and it is evident that there is still considerable bullish sentiment in Wall Street, just waiting for their moment to buy the dip .

Into this mix, Oracle (ORCL) delivered strong Q3 FY2026 results on March 10, 2026, beating estimates with $17.2 billion in revenue, driven by a 243% surge in AI infrastructure demand. This demonstrates that the underlying strength of the AI boom in the US is still alive and well. If the war situation in Iran can be resolved, it is clear that the stock market will continue up to new record highs very quickly. Consider the chart:

The chart shows the November correction and what some technicians are now suggesting is a head-and-shoulders formation. In our view, the formation is not particularly convincing, but after Friday’s move there can be no doubt that the index has broken strongly down.

Most of the problem comes from the jump in the oil price which has seen North Sea Brent rise to above $100. This is very good for Russia and Putin, while being very bad for Trump. The US Secretary for Defence, Pete Hegseth, seems to think that the problem is easily solvable, but we believe that it may be extremely difficult.    

Normally, about 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage is relatively easy to attack and control, and it is Iran’s only strong pressure point in its war with Israel and America. Its navy and air force have now been systematically eliminated by strategic bombing. The new leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, has specifically said that he will not allow any ships to pass through and that he will use the rising oil price to put pressure on Trump.

The problem is that to open the Strait will require boots on the ground in Iran. The Israeli/US forces will have to clear a corridor at least 30km wide along the Iranian coast adjacent to the Strait to prevent the firing of missiles and drones against passing ships. They cannot do this from the air. Having boots on the ground means incurring casualties.

Trump probably began this war in order to draw attention away from his problems with the Epstein files. He has however landed himself with a new problem – the rising price of petrol in America. His approval ratings have fallen to an all-time low and the November mid-term elections are looming large. The price of petrol has risen by 20% since the start of the war. On the other hand, his tax cuts will begin to impact in April resulting in refund cheques being paid after the tax-filing season ends.

On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. Martinez is a Democrat who took 62% of the vote in a district that had given Donald Trump a 13-percentage-point victory in the 2024 presidential race. And her win came a week after Democrats seized a Texas Senate district that had supported Trump even more strongly.

While these results are not conclusive, they are a strong indication that the Republicans will lose their control of the House and may even lose the Senate in November. Trump knows that, if he loses both Houses, he could easily be looking at impeachment – so suddenly control over the shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz becomes critical.

How should you as a private investor respond to this situation? Our advice is not to panic but to monitor your stop-loss levels closely and act on them when broken. We believe that the situation will be resolved and that some degree of normalcy will return sooner or later. When and if that happens, we expect stocks around the world to bounce.

Trump’s decision to bomb Iran and kill the Supreme Leader of over 200 million Shia Moslems was taken without the consideration and approval of Congress and without the cooperation of other Western countries. It is the typical act of a dictator and has embroiled America in what looks like an unplanned war situation. This may prove to be very difficult to conclude on any reasonable basis, and especially without a significant cost both in money and American lives.

Combined with other disturbing economic data, this has taken Wall Street out of the sideways pattern that it has been in since late last year and put it into a correction. The S&P500 index has so far fallen 3,4% from its all-time record high of 6978.6 on 27th January 2026. Consider the chart:

Part of the problem is the increasingly negative data coming out of the US economy, especially in the labour market. The most recent US jobs report showed that the US economy lost 92 000 jobs in February 2026.

Disturbingly, the steadily deteriorating monthly jobs numbers are an indication either that either the economy may be headed into recession or that the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies is putting a large number of Americans out of work. Consider this chart published on Friday last week by CNBC:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html

This shows a pattern of falling job creation going back to the beginning of 2022 and becoming steadily more negative in recent months. Combined with this, the unemployment rate has also been edging up and came in at 4,4% in February. This is somewhat higher than the unemployment rates below 4% which characterised the end of Joe Biden’s presidency, painting a concerning picture.

In our view, the productivity benefits of new technologies like AI should, in the medium term, more than compensate for the inevitable loss of jobs. In effect, the US economy is adjusting rapidly to a radically disruptive force which is reshaping the business environment and causing a sharp re-allocation of capital. Some businesses will benefit and others will disappear for ever.

In the longer term, once the dust settles, the economy should emerge stronger and that is why we believe that this is probably a correction rather than a new bear trend – but you will notice that what looks like a correction right now could develop into a head-and-shoulders formation if the record high of 6978.6 on the S&P is not broken when the market recovers.

At the moment, the positive news coming out of the tech sector is being off-set by the bad news on the political front and Trump’s war in Iran. If we are lucky, the war in Iran will be resolved on some basis - probably because he will probably back down in the face of increasing pressure both at home and abroad. If this happens in a relatively short time, the market will turn its attention back to the rapid progress of new technologies and hopefully recover to make a further new all-time record high in due course.

It is no secret that precious metals prices have been running. Most of the best-performing shares on the Winning Shares List (WSL) are mining companies with interests either in gold or platinum group metals (PGM). Gold in particular has dominated the investment world. The metal has risen 145% in US dollars since it broke up through resistance at $2060 at the beginning of March 2024, as reported in the Confidential Report of that month. Consider the chart:

As you can see here the break above resistance at $2060 sparked a strong upward trend. There was another period of resistance at $3424 in the middle of last year which was finally broken to the upside in early September. Gold may now, once again, be in for a period of consolidation, but the trend is clear.

The rising gold price is primarily due to central banks choosing to buy and hold gold as their most secure asset, rather than US Treasury Bills, despite the fact that gold offers no return. This is a testament to the rising levels of perceived geo-political risk in the world and gold’s ancient and undisputed status as the world’s most secure asset.  

AngloGold has been a great beneficiary of the rising gold price. In its latest financials for the year to 31st December 2025, the company reported a 16% increase in production combined with a 45% increase in the average gold price received. Costs were flat in real terms which generated a massive 186% increase in headline earnings.

The company's total cash costs increased 7% over the year to $1242 per ounce with all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) of $1709 – against a gold price of over $5000. This is an immensely profitable company. Total dividends paid for the year amounted to $1,8bn or 357c (US) per share – which is R57.19.

The company was originally formed to consolidate the gold interests of Anglo American in South Africa. Those interests included ERGO, Eastvaal, Southvaal, FreeGold, Elandsrand, Joel and Western Deep. Today, AngloGold owns no South African mines at all. It has 11 mining operations on 4 continents, and it has moved its head office to New York and its primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Given that South Africa still has more than 5000 tons of proven underground gold reserves, this is a sad reflection of ANC’s hostile attitude towards the mining industry in this country over the past 30 years and what that has cost us.

We added AngloGold to the WSL on 5th March 2024 at a price of 38932c – mainly because we could see that gold was breaking up through that key level at $2060. Since then the share has risen to 179102c – a gain of almost 340% in 718 days or 172,6% per annum. Consider the chart:

AngloGold is constantly adjusting its portfolio, adding exciting new gold prospects while divesting itself of non-performing assets. During 2025 it acquired Centamin which is proving to be a great addition. It also made three further acquisitions in Nevada. These acquisitions have increased the company’s mineral reserve to 36,5 million ounces – a 17% increase on 2024. This means that the company will be able to continue mining profitably for many years, especially considering its very low cost of extraction.

In our view, this share is speculative because it is dependent on the international price of gold over which it has no control. But it is geographically diversified and extremely well managed with relatively low costs and minimal debt. We believe that it will continue to perform well.