Tag: International

The Year Ahead

2019 is going to be an interesting year both locally and internationally.

In our view, the American economy is almost certain to continue growing rapidly – and that growth must, sooner or later, be reflected in share prices.

In our last article we suggested that the collapse in the S&P500 index over December was unprecedented and suggested that it was probably due to the temporary shut-down of the US government (clearly caused by Trump) at a time when most investors were away on holiday. We suggested that as soon as they returned, we would probably see a “V bottom”.

That “V bottom” is now well on its way. Consider the chart:

S&P500 Index August 2018 to January 2019 – Chart by ShareFriend Pro

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Trump’s Debt Stand-off

At the time of the previous article we said that we thought that the S&P500 index had found some support at its “triple bottom” at 2632 – we were wrong. Consider the chart:

S&P500 Index August to December 2018 – Chart by ShareFriend Pro

The triple bottom was broken decisively and this resulted in severe investor disappointment. At the time of writing, the S&P has fallen for 7 straight days and reached a low of 2351. Read More

S&P500 Support

Investors have been nervously watching the progress of Wall Street against the background of mounting allegations against Donald Trump and senior members of his staff, and the “trade war” which he has instigated against China. At the same time, investors are also concerned that the continuing strength of the US economy will result in a more rapid increase in interest rates going forward.

The effect of this nervousness has been to take the S&P500 index into a correction from its all-time high of 2930 made on 20th September 2018. The fears usually associated with October month are now well behind us and it is unusual for markets to be in a corrective phase over the festive season – but then the political situation in America is nothing if not unusual. Read More

The Confidential Report – December 2018


The American economy continues to grow rapidly. A survey of fund managers by Bank of America in September 2018 showed that on average they currently expect the S&P500 index to rise at least 12% more before peaking. They are allocating a further 10% of their cash flows to US stocks than they did in October 2018 – especially into the high-tech stocks like Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google (the “Faangs). On average they felt that the S&P would peak at 3056. On 4th December 2016, we predicted in an article, on the basis of a Point and Figure horizontal count, that the S&P would go to 3027. Now, finally, two years later, American fund managers are agreeing with us. In fact we believe that the S&P will go much higher than that before it turns.

S&P500 Index September to November 2018 – Chart by ShareFriend Pro

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The Confidential Report – November 2018

October Month

October month is never a good month for investors. Historically, the 1929 crash and the 1987 crash began in October and several other Octobers over the decades have been bad. Always, some investors will tend to get out of the market in October or in anticipation of a fall in October. This makes the October problem self-fulfilling to some extent and this year was no exception. Analysts have for a while been saying that world stock markets are over-priced based on the fact that the bull trend is now in record territory having been going on for nearly ten years (an opinion which we do not agree with). So, when October month comes along there is what appears to be good justification to get out of the market. Read More