The Confidential Report - August 2025
6 August 2025 By PDSNETAmerica
The July jobs report shows that only 73 000 jobs were created – well below the average of economists’ predictions of 100 000. But more shocking were the downward revisions made to the job creation figures from earlier months. June 2025 was revised down to just 14 000 from 147 000 and May’s figure was revised down to 19 000 from 125 000. This indicates that the job market has been weak for several months and paints a far less rosy picture of the economy than investors had previously believed to be the case. This resulted in a sharp intraday fall in the S&P500 index. Banking shares especially were hit by the perception that a weaker economy would result in lower growth. The unemployment rate went back up to 4,2% from June’s 4,1%
The labour figures came out just after the Federal Reserve Bank’s decision to keep rates unchanged last week. Chair, Jerome Powell, was arguing that the impact of Trump’s tariffs on prices was not yet clear, even though some product prices had increased. Investors now believe that an interest rate cut at the September meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) is far more probable, however. Powell has been refusing to bow to pressure from Trump to reduce interest rates more quickly. The decision to keep rates unchanged was not unanimous with two of the committee members voting for a cut.
GDP growth in the US economy did slow down sharply in the first quarter of 2025 - mainly because companies increased imports in order to get import orders in ahead of Trump’s proposed tariffs. Growth fell to -0,5% from the fourth quarter of 2024, which saw growth of +2,4%. The effects of this “front-loading” to beat the impending tariffs will unwind in the second quarter and going forward. Quarterly profits coming out of the S&P500 companies have also been strong, with about 85% ahead of analysts’ forecasts. Growth in the second quarter is expected to bounce back to somewhere close to the 2,4% rate. Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.33% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 3.19% unadjusted year over year in June.
On Sunday the 27th of July 2025 Trump announced a trade deal with Europe which includes a 15% blanket tariff on EU goods coming into America and EU purchases of military hardware and equipment. The deal is a compromise between the 30% tariff Trump originally proposed and the zero percent that the EU was looking for. The US trade deficit with the European Union was $235bn last year. If the new tariff structure is applied to motor vehicles it will be a significant improvement on the current 27,5% tariff. The deal follows the 15% tariff agreement with Japan which was reached the previous week and follows a pattern of reduced tariffs across the globe. This is part of the reason for the surge on Wall Street since the low on 8th April 2025.
Trump’s tariffs have reduced General Motors profits by $1,1bn or 32% in second quarter of 2025 according to their financials. Many US companies have reduced their profit and revenue guidance because of the tariffs. Guidance for the year is estimated to drop by between $10bn and $12,5bn. There is also a switch back to internal combustion engines after the government removed the subsidy for electric vehicles. It is clear that US businesses are beginning to count the cost of the new tariffs, especially in the motor industry.
President Trump’s much-touted “big, beautiful bill” officially became law on July 4th, 2025, following its narrow passage through both chambers of Congress. The Senate approved the measure by a single vote, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie, and the House followed suit after contentious debates within the Republican majority. Although Republicans held a slim edge in the House, internal opposition from hardliners nearly derailed the bill, citing concerns over its projected $3.3 trillion impact on the federal deficit over the next decade. Critics, including every Democrat in Congress, warn that the legislation will strip millions of low-income Americans of health coverage while handing substantial tax cuts to the nation’s wealthiest.
As expected the JSE Overall index has followed Wall Street up to new record highs, breaking above the 100 000 level for the first time on the 23rd of July 2025. The upward moves follow Trump’s backing down on many of the tariffs he spoke about on Liberation Day and the recovery of the S&P500 index from its V-bottom. We expect stock markets around the world to continue performing well as they reflect the impact of new technologies such as AI and humanoid robotics on corporate productivity and profits.
Consumer goods imports into the US dropped 12,4% in June 2025 in response to Trump’s various tariffs. This comes after a surge in imports earlier as traders tried to place orders ahead of the implementation of the tariffs. The drop in imports caused the US trade deficit to decline sharply and will probably lead to a rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) after the first quarter’s -0,5% figure. Most economists are expecting growth to return to approximately the 2,4% level of the fourth quarter of last year. Imports of motor vehicles fell by 2% in the second quarter – the lowest level in two years.
Technically, the S&P500 has now completed the V-bottom that it made as a direct result of Trump’s tariffs. The correction lasted for just over 4 months and took the index down 18,9% with a closing low of 4982 on the 8th of April 2025. The recovery has been fuelled by the fact that Trump has largely backed down on the massive tariffs that he has talked about.
The underlying sentiment in the market is strongly bullish, driven by the rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), humanoid robotics, and the decline in energy prices as solar takes over from fossil fuels. That sentiment was held back by Trump’s tariff regime but has now been released and has some catching up to do.
The sharp 1,6% fall in the S&P on Friday last week was due to the unexpectedly bad jobs numbers for the past three months, but it is important to understand that the market was overbought and for looking for a reason to correct. Consider the chart:
The chart shows the V-bottom, and the horizontal blue line shows the previous record closing high of 6144 made on the 19th of February 2025. We now expect that to become the new support level in the current correction. We are also sure that the S&P will continue to rise in due course and will make further new record highs. In other words, the great 16-year bull trend is far from over.
Ukraine
The weakening of the Russian ruble against the US dollar is a clear indication of the continuing collapse of the Russian economy. The Russian central bank has reduced interest rates for the second time from 20% to 18% after reducing them from 21% to 20% in June 2025. The objective is to stimulate growth in the economy which is now cooling down as the effects of massive military spending slow down. The Central Bank acknowledges that growth is slowing, and commercial banks have been facing a growing incidence of non-performing loans as ordinary Russians struggle to pay the high rates. Inflation dropped to 9,4% in June 2025 after months of double-digit growth. Putin shows no signs of wanting to end the war, which probably means that state spending will continue to increase making further inflation inevitable. Even Russia’s minister of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, says the economy is on the brink of a recession. Defence spending has grown by 25% this year to around $167bn – which is enormous for a relatively small economy with annual GDP of around $2,1 trillion. There are also indications that Russia is running out of troops to send to the front. Ukraine has been using its superior drone technology to hit military targets far inside Russia.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, both sides have been taking some strain. Both are desperately short of men on the front lines. Ukraine has been compensating for this by innovating and is at the forefront of drone technology. The Russians too have been making improvements to their drones. The result has been a sort-of “no-go” zone where anything that moves can be instantly pin-pointed and destroyed with more drones or artillery. Both sides have also been conducting long-range drone and missile attacks into each other’s territory, with the Russian focused on civilian targets while the Ukrainians target military installations and equipment. A major benefit for Ukraine and problem for Russia is Trump’s apparent change of heart. He appears to have switched from supporting Russia to supporting Ukraine. American weaponry together with on-going aid from Europe is beginning to give Ukraine the edge over Russia’s rapidly depleting stockpiles of armaments. Our view remains that eventually Ukraine will emerge victorious, and Putin will cease to be a force in Russia.
Political
The conflict between the DA and the ANC over the firing of Andrew Whitfield continued with the DA threatening that John Steenhuisen will not participate in the government’s inter-ministerial committee and the possibility that the DA will not vote in favour of the budgets of those departments headed by “corruption-accused” ministers. The DA have identified three ANC ministers who have been accused of corruption and yet remain in office. The government of national unity (GNU) continues to be endangered by President Ramaphosa’s unilateral firing of Whitfield. Problems in the GNU are beginning to impact on business confidence as some parties have threatened to walk out of the alliance and its fragile nature becomes more apparent. On the 21st of July 2025, President Ramaphosa fired the Minister of Education, Nobuhle Nkabane, one of the three ministers singled out by the DA. This is clearly a victory for the DA, but may not be enough to resolve the conflict. This was followed the next day by the DA’s agreement to vote in favour of the third budget – thus avoiding a further budget problem and showing that the GNU is still functional.
The ANC’s annual report shows that its membership has dropped by 15% between August 2022 and December 2024. The report indicates that the decline has been widespread, but especially among working people, unemployed people in rural areas. Union members, especially in government service, have moved away from the ANC and become critical of it. Corruption and a failure to ensure service delivery have also taken a toll. With the local government elections due in 2026 the ANC will probably lose further control over the country. The establishment of the GNU also alienated the Communist Party from the ANC as it had to change its idealistic stance to make an alliance with the DA. In our view, ANC support has been declining more-or-less since it came to power in 1994. We are expecting it to lose ground to the DA and other parties in future.
Economy
As expected, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank reduced South African interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday last week bringing the repo rate down to 7%. It also forecast that inflation would be 3,3% in 2025. The official target range is between 3% and 6%, but the MPC has been targeting 4,5% for some time and has now reduced that further to 3%. The reduced target will have the effect of reducing inflation and, more importantly interest rates. This in turn will reduce the government’s interest expense on the massive government debt.
As expected, the consumer price index rose to 3% in June 2025 – up from April’s figure of 2,8%. The month-on-month increase was 0,3% driven by food and beverage prices which rose 5,1% over the year. Despite the increase, the level of inflation remains low and has the effect of increasing real incomes and increasing retail spending. At least one more 25-basis point cut in the repo rate is expected this year and possibly two. Fuel prices fell by 11,2% over the year and by 0,4% in the month, but the effect of falling fuel prices is going to move out of the system soon resulting in rising annual inflation.
A survey by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) shows that inflation expectations in South Africa have fallen below 4% for the first time. The average expectation has fallen to 3,9% from 4,4%. Respondents expect inflation to be 4,4% over the next five years. The survey shows that the Reserve Bank’s efforts to bring inflation down have been effective. Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the Reserve Bank is in the process of trying to get the Bank’s target inflation reduced to 3% from the current range of between 3% and 6%. The reduction in inflation has had a marked positive impact on the level of real wages and salaries, increasing consumers’ take-home pay.
The IMF is predicting that growth in South Africa will be 1% this year increasing to 1,3% next year. It has, however, increased its prediction of world economic growth to 3% this year and 3,1% next year. The increases take into account the softening of the Trump administration’s stance on tariffs and the various trade agreements reached in the last few weeks. South Africa is currently trying to reach a trade agreement with the US before Trump’s 30% blanket tariffs kick in from the 1st of August 2025. We continue to believe that the IMF’s growth forecasts for South Africa are slightly pessimistic.
The Bankserv take-home pay index showed that take-home pay in June 2025 was almost the same as in May – but it was 12% higher than May last year, which means that salary-earners are considerably better off after deducting the inflation rate of around 3%. This has led to a steady increase in retail sales which were up 4,3% in the first five months of this year. Obviously, the potential for US tariffs is a negative for the economy if a trade deal is not reached. Our view is that a reasonable trade deal will be reached sooner or later and that will reduce market uncertainty.
According to a recent DebtBusters survey, 70% of respondents said that they were under financial stress. This is less than 75% in 2024 and 78% in 2023. Despite this, middle income South Africans (those earning more than R20 000 a month) have not seen any reduction in financial stress. 63% of the people surveyed said they spent about 30% of their take-home pay on servicing their debts and half of them said they spent 40% or more on debt servicing. Sanlam’s credit confidence index shows that more than half of millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) are high credit risks and spending more than half of their income on debt servicing and repayments. Generation “X” (born between 1965 and 1980) has less financial stress.
Year-on-year credit extension in South Africa remained at 5% in June – the same as it was in May 2025. Corporate credit extension and household credit extension were about equal with corporate at 51,9%. South Africans generally have been paying back debt and even saving in an environment where interest rates remain far higher than inflation resulting in real rates of interest. Over time the real rate of interest is slowly resulting in South Africans becoming a nation of savers rather than a nation of spenders.
The Standard & Poors purchasing managers index (PMI) for June 2025 fell to 50,1 from May’s figure of 50,8. Output levels contracted after rising strongly in May and new orders were also down – but business confidence fell to its lowest level in 4 years. One factor is the continuing uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and increased costs during the month, especially for labour. In our view, however, the economy is slowly recovering and responding to falling interest rates. We believe that confidence will pick up in the second half of the year.
ABSA’s purchasing managers index (PMI) for June 2025 rose to 48,5 – a gain of 5,4 points but remained below the neutral level of 50, showing that the sector is still contracting. New sales orders increased sharply as local demand increased and exports improved. The employment sub-index was also strongly up showing that manufacturers are beginning to take on more staff. Inventories were also up showing some re-stocking taking place and the price index fell because of lower fuel costs. This results from a lower oil price and a stronger rand. We expect manufacturing to continue to improve as consumer spending picks up.
Manufacturing output increased slightly in May 2025, edging up by 0,5%. Most economists were expecting it to fall so the actual reading surprised to the upside. The increase came from metals and machinery which were up 4,3%. This was offset by a 6,7% decline in motor vehicles and parts production. Seasonally adjusted production was up 2% from April month which was itself up 1,7% from March. Manufacturing is still 5% below what it was before COVID-19. In our view manufacturing will pick up in due course, especially as interest rates decline and consumer spending increases later this year.
New car sales rose by 18,7% in June month showing that the economy continues to recover. The big winners were the cheaper, more affordable imported brands of cars and bakkies. Imports by local car manufacturers rose by 25,6% while sales of locally manufactured cars fell by 14%. Vehicles costing less than R400 000 were the big sellers and consumers sought to keep costs under control. The lower level of interest rates is beginning to impact the market as is the lower price of fuel. Exports were 7,9% higher than a year ago mainly due to strong demand for SA-made bakkies in Europe.
The trade surplus was R21,7bn in May 2025 – nearly double April’s figure as the rising price of gold and strong agricultural exports (especially citrus) increased exports. Imports were up only 1,2% as the country continues to deal with low economic growth. The trade surplus is still slightly less than it was last year after the first 5 months. Much of the surplus comes from trade with our neighbouring countries like Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia. South Africa is benefiting from the strong gold price, despite the fact that gold production has been falling for years.
South Africa exports about 66% of the bakkies and cars that it manufactures, making this industry a major employer and a strong source of foreign currency and overseas investment. President Ramaphosa visited the BMW plant in Rosslyn and promised that the government was finalising incentives for the industry to produce batteries locally and components for electric vehicles (EV) as well as minerals beneficiation. Because South Africa produces about 80% of the world’s platinum it is well positioned to take advantage of any move towards hydrogen powered vehicles and the move away from internal combustion engines. Ramaphosa is also in favour of incentivising local buyers of EVs.
The government has approved a further R94,8bn in guarantees for Transnet, about half of which will be used to ensure that the state-owned enterprise (SOE) can meet its debt repayments for the next five years and the balance to mitigate the risks of ratings agencies’ downgrades. This comes after Moody’s put Transnet on watch for a further downgrade. Transnet estimates that it will need R14bn a year for the next five years to upgrade its infrastructure to the point where it is good enough for private operators.
The news that South African ports handled more than 100 000 containers in the week in the 16th week of this year shows that the heavy investment in our ports is beginning to pay off. The achievement is very close to the record of 101 870 containers moved in a single week in the 2017/18 year. Congestion at our ports has been part of the reason for the economy’s poor performance in recent years with exports from mining output to citrus fruit being held up. About R4bn has been invested into new equipment from cranes to fork lifts and straddle carriers at various ports. About half of South Africa’s citrus exports are loaded at Durban harbour’s pier 2 where performance has been greatly improved.
Amendments to South Africa’s draconian labour laws propose simplifying procedures for small businesses allowing less formal disciplinary hearings. Businesses with less than 50 employees will not be required to pay employees according to the conditions established by bargaining councils. Exceptions and limitations will be introduced for probationary employees with the objective of making small businesses more willing to employ people. As these laws stand now small businesses are unwilling to employ people because then they become very expensive and difficult to fire. In our view, the rigid labour laws in South Africa are one of the main structural impediments to increasing employment levels. Obviously, the suggested amendments are resulting in protest action by unions.
South Africa is chairing the G20 this year and is supposed to hand over the chairmanship to America after the G20 meeting in November. However, Trump is saying that he will not attend the meeting because of South Africa’s bad policies, which will make it difficult to hand over the chairmanship. The issue is further evidence of South Africa’s deteriorating diplomatic relations with America and is being further exacerbated by our stance on the genocide taking place in the Middle East and Gaza.
Online gaming platforms and sports betting have become a major part of the South African economy and are growing rapidly. In the post-COVID19 period since 2020 betting has been increasing at the rate of 42% per annum. The restaurant group Famous Brands lists online gambling as one of the major factors reducing consumer spend at its restaurants. Traditional operators like casinos, bingo halls and limited payout machines are losing market share to online gambling. Betting now comprises 61% of total gaming revenue compared with 29% at casinos. Problem gambling has increased 5-fold with 56% of problem gamblers gambling to make money and many of them being people who earn less than R15000 a month or being unemployed. The National Gambling Board expects betting to increase by 20% per annum while casino revenue remains flat.
Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) was above 60% in the year to 30th April 2025 and should be above 70% by the end of 2025 according to the Minister of Energy and Electricity. Medupi has finally managed to bring their last unit online and there has been a substantial rise in the production of renewable energy. New rounds of the independent power producer (IPP) procurement program are planned especially for battery storage. The IPP program also envisages 14000km of new transmission lines by the year 2032. The goal is to achieve universal access to electricity by 2030. Altogether, the days of loadshedding appear to be receding which is a major boost for the economy.
An Australian research paper has recently found that South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) could be cut by as much as 45% due to the effects of global warming by the end of this century. The paper argues that more countries will experience bad weather simultaneously leading to a drop in international trade and exports which can result in a spike in food prices. If the average global temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, then global economic losses could be as much as 40% of GDP compared to the 11% currently estimated, with South Africa losing 45%. About 33% of our GDP is due to exports which will be severely curtailed. In our view, climate change is becoming an increasingly important factor is share assessment. It is becoming increasingly important to consider the sensitivity of a company’s profits to climate-related factors as well as the general impact of climate change on growth both at home and internationally. Notably, global coal output is expected to reach a record high of 9,2bn tons in 2025 with demand up 1,5%. This has led our Minerals and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe to crow that “king coal is back”, but it is very bad news for global warming. About 70% of South Africa’s energy is estimated to come from coal.
In its efforts to fix South Africa’s ailing municipalities, the Treasury is considering employing outside professionals in “distressed” municipalities to help with service delivery and financial management. This will have the knock-on effect of improving Eskom’s financial position by reducing the level of municipal debt. It is now estimated that more than 60 of South Africa’s 257 municipalities are in extreme financial “distress”. The goal of employing outsiders is to make the Treasuries Financial Recovery Plan (FRP) for municipalities more effective in the short term. The ANC’s bad performance in the recent elections is thought to be a direct result of poor service delivery in many areas of the country.
The Rand
Trump’s decision to impose a 30% blanket tariff on South African exports to America is probably an effort to establish a strong bargaining position rather than the final decision on tariffs. Further negotiations on a trade agreement remain probable. About 8,5% of South Africa’s exports go to America and about one third of those will be impacted by the end of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Many other African countries will be impacted by the end of AGOA. In our view, Trump will probably back down on this latest tariff announcement in due course. The rand is taking a beating because of this blanket tariff on all products exported to the US coming from this country. The tariffs will affect the motor industry, agriculture, steel, and chemicals among others. The rand has weakened sharply from R17.47 to the US dollar to current levels around R18.21 in the week from the 24th to the 31st July. Obviously, businesses are trying to get in ahead of the tariff by exporting as much as they can before it comes into effect. In our view, the rand’s response is probably an over-reaction, and we believe that, once the dust settles, the it will continue to strengthen and eventually even break below the double bottom at R17.47. Consider the chart:
As you can see, the year began well with the rand enjoying a period of steady strength. It reached a cycle low at R18.06 to the US dollar in March. That was followed by Trump’s 25% tariff on vehicle imports and then “liberation day” on 2nd April 2025. The initial response to this was a sharp shift towards “risk-on” in international markets and emerging market currencies, including the rand fell back.
The rand reached a cycle low of R19.93 to the US dollar on the 9th of April 2025 and then began to recover – mainly because of a shift back towards “risk-off” as Trump backed down on his tariffs.
Then the rand made a “double bottom” at about R17.50 before succumbing to Trump’s most recent decision to apply a 30% blanket tariff on all South African exports to America beginning on 1st August 2025. You will note the technical importance of the R18.06 level which appears to have become a support level.
In our view, the fall in the rand over the last week in July 2025 has probably been overdone. We expect the rand to recover in due course and ultimately to break below the resistance level at R17.50
Commodities
PLATINUM
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) says that platinum will remain in short supply for some time. In 2025 platinum supply is expected to be nearly 1 million ounces short of expected demand. The shortages will be made up from above-ground stocks which are expected to last for the next four years. South Africa produces about 80% of the world’s platinum and many of the platinum mines have been forced to cut back and close shafts because of low prices. Rising electricity costs have been a major factor. The problem is that it can take many years to bring a new platinum mine into production and in the meantime there is going to be a growing shortage of the metal. Sibanye, Valterra (previously Amplats), Impala and Northam have all seen their share prices rise in response to the latest spike in prices. Consider the chart:
The chart shows the long-term downward trend in the US dollar price of platinum and the sudden spike in the prices since May 2025. The palladium price has also risen since April. All platinum group metals (PGM) are doing better. In our opinion PGM shares will continue to do well, but they remain volatile commodity shares.
OIL
Opec+ is a coalition of 8 oil-producing countries that work together to stabilise and control the price of oil on international markets. The members are Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria. These countries have decided to increase production by as much as 2,47m barrels per day between May and September this year. Obviously this is helping to keep the open market price of oil down. Consider the chart:
The chart shows that North Sea Brent oil has considerable support at around $72, but is in a downward trend. The support level was broken in April with the price falling as low as $60. Now it looks like that support level has become a resistance level. In our opinion, oil will continue to come under pressure going forward.
COPPER
Global recession fears, tightening monetary policy and slowing demand caused the copper price to collapse in 2022, reaching a low in July of that year. Copper prices then began a volatile recovery and now Trump’s tariffs have pushed the metal to a new high.
This, of course, is pushing those shares which produce copper high on the JSE. Those are BHP, Anglo and Glencore. Trump has said he will impose a 50% tariff on copper. America imports about half of the copper it uses so the tariffs will cause the price of copper to rise sharply. The demand for copper is expected to increase by 40% over the next 15 years as electronics products become more dominant.
Companies
LEWIS (LEW)
Lewis remains one of our favourite shares on the JSE. In its most recent financial statements for the year to 31st March 2025 the company reported revenue up 13,5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 60,3%. The big jump in profits was, “...driven by robust growth in credit sales, expanding gross profit, strong other revenue growth and continued improvement in the quality of the debtors’ portfolio.” The company has taken on some gearing to finance working capital, especially of the increased debtors’ book. This is a company that is benefiting directly from the rising levels of real take-home pay in South Africa – and that in turn is a function of our low levels of inflation. The share trades on a P:E of just 5,24 and a dividend yield of 8,24%. This makes it very cheap in our opinion. Consider the chart:
As you can see we first recommended Lewis in the Confidential Report of September 2020 when it was trading for just 1400c per share. It was then added to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 1st December 2023 at a price of 4150c. Since then it has gone up by 87% - or 52% per annum.
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BTI)
British American Tobacco (BTI) is a massive international company involved in the production and sale of cigarettes (combustibles) and other smokeless products. It reports in pounds sterling. In the six months to the 30th of June 2025 the company reported revenue of just over GBP12bn and gross profit of GBP5bn. The share is not a particularly spectacular performer, but it is a serious rand hedge and trades on a P:E of 35,29. Consider the chart:
We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) at 60060c on the 19th of July 2024. Since then it has gone up steadily to 98099c – a gain of 63% in just over a year. Smoking gets a lot of attention from anti-smoke lobby groups and legislators which has tended to make the share less profitable in the past. However today most of that is behind it and it is free to continue developing its markets. It has made a significant foray into smokeless products which now account for nearly 20% of the business. In South Africa it has a serious problem with the sale of illegal cigarettes in this country and it may eventually be forced to close its operations here. With a market capitalisation of R2,3 trillion it is one of the JSE’s largest companies. Its primary listing is on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). We believe that the share will continue to perform well.
NAMPAK (NPK)
Nampak is a large international packaging company with interests in 10 African countries. A large part of its business is the manufacture of beverage cans for various consumer drinks. In its results for the six months to 31st March 2025 the company reported revenue up 11% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 107%. During the period the company sold Bevcan Nigeria and used the proceeds to reduce debt by one third from R4,6bn to R3,1bn. This also reduced the company’s interest expense by 38%. The company has also sold its Keyna assets and is in the process of selling its 51,43% interest in Nampak Zimbabwe. Technically, the share has been in an upward trend since the sale of Bevcan Nigeria in May 2024. Consider the chart:
We added the share to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 21st June of 2024 at a price of R228. It has subsequently risen to R493.43 – a gain of 116,4% in 13 months. We expect it to continue to perform well in the future.
SIBANYE (SSW)
Sibanye is a diversified precious metals producer that is busy diversifying into base metals. It has been benefiting from the increase in precious metals prices over the past, especially the increase in the gold price since March 2024 and then more recently the jump in the platinum price. The gold price has now reached a ceiling and resistance at $3424 per ounce, but continues to contribute strongly to profits. In its results for the 3 months to 31st March 2025 the company reported that earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) at its SA gold operations increased by 178% while SA platinum group metals (PGM) saw EBITDA rise by 74%. The company’s Century operations in Australia contributed R178m to group EBITDA compared with a loss of R262m in the 1st quarter of 2024. Technically, the share has been in a strong upward trend. Consider the chart:
NORTHAM (NPH)
Northam is a platinum mining company operating in the South African Bushveld Complex with three operating mines at Zondereinde, Booysendaal and Eland, all of which have a remaining life of over 25 years. In a production update for the year to the 30th of June 2025 the company reported sales of 4E metals above 1 million ounces for the first time, with chrome production up 12,1%. Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since April 2021, reflecting the weakness in PGM prices. Consider the chart:
The sudden improvement in PGM prices and especially platinum have seen the share take off. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 21st of May 2025 at 14311c – just 3 months ago. It has already risen by 47%, even after some profit taking over the last week. We expect that the shortage of platinum group metals (PGM) in world markets will continue, with prices rising. We expect Northam’s run to continue.
IOCO (previously EOH)
This an IT company that has been through a torrid time but is now recovering rapidly. It has rationalised its business and eliminated non-core operations and to reduce debt. In its results for the six months to 31st January 2025 the company reported earnings before interest taxation depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) up 159,3% and earnings per share (EPS) of 19c compared with a loss of 15c in the previous period. Technically, the share has been in a strong upward trend since October 2024. Consider the chart:
We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 6th of November 2024 at a price of 220c. It has subsequently gone up 91,8% in 9 months. We expect it to continue performing well.
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