PDSnet Articles

Market Overview

Over the past few weeks there have been a number of interesting developments. There have been more revelations coming out of the leaked Gupta e-mails which show just how far state capture has gone – but as yet there is no action from the government or even an official position on this matter. It is as if their attitude is that if they ignore it for long enough it will disappear.  The Zuma camp is struggling to progress any of their radical populist agendas because of strong opposition from within the ANC and without. Read More

The Disconnect

An interesting disconnect is going on in South Africa. On the one hand, you have economists who are almost universally negative, reducing their estimates of GPD growth and pointing to falling consumer confidence and lower production. On the other hand, you have rising share prices, which imply higher company profits in the future, and that implies improved consumer spending and better GDP growth. Read More

The Rand

The currency of a country is like the shares of a listed company. If the company is expected to do well and make profits, then its shares will go up – and vice versa. The same applies to a currency. If the country is perceived as being well-managed and doing well, then its currency will strengthen against other currencies – and vice versa. Read More

The Confidential Report – July 2017

When you buy a share, you are in the business of predicting the future. You are saying, “I am buying this share because I expect it to go up”. The accuracy or otherwise of your prediction will determine whether your investment is profitable or not. And the only way to predict the future is to study the past. There is no other way. The only reason that you know that the sun will rise tomorrow is because you have seen it happen before. If you did not have that experience, you would not be able to make that prediction with any confidence. It would simply be a guess. Forecasting is not an exact science. Predictions can never be certainties. Indeed, investment is not about certainties – it is about probabilities. A sound investment is one which has a better than 50% probability of going up. Any probability less than that is a gamble where the odds are stacked against you. Read More