PDSNET ARTICLES

The Confidential Report - June 2020

America

From an economic perspective, America seems to experiencing the first signs of return to normality. The following is a selection of the more visible signs:
  • Panic buying of toilet rolls, disinfectants and food is down by over 60%.
  • Clothing and accessories sales are up over 600%.
  • The Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey jumped 34% from April to May.
  • Road

Afrimat Opportunity

Afrimat (AFT) is a share that we have liked for a long time. In May last year we wrote an article in which we did a point-and-figure horizontal count on its upside breakout from a lengthy period of sideways movement. Unfortunately, the coronavirus made a nonsense of our predictions, but the underlying fundamentals of this company have only improved since then and it now represents one of the

The Prosus Winner

It has been well said that no matter what happens in the world or in South Africa, there is always a way to make money from it in the share market - it is just a matter of seeing where the opportunity lies.
The advent of the coronavirus in late January this year, while it was a world-wide human and economic catastrophe, presented just such an opportunity. The contagion forced a sea-change in behaviour patterns world-wide

R186 Long Bond

Sometimes things happen in the markets which cause you to ask the question,
"What can they see that I can't see?"
The progress of the yield on South Africa's long bonds is like that.
South Africa has just been downgraded by both Moodys and Standard & Poors. We are officially at junk status - so you would think that our government debt instruments would be out of favour among international

Imperial Logistics

Imperial (IPL) is a large international logistics company with 27 000 employees operating in 32 countries mainly in Africa and Europe. In is involved in transport, warehousing and international freight management. It is the largest logistics supplier in South Africa. The company is involved in five key areas - automotive, chemicals, consumer, healthcare and industrial.
The company recently split off and separately listed

The Confidential Report - May 2020

Wall Street

It is becoming clear that the lack of nation-wide response to COVID19 in America is now endangering the entire world economy. It is apparent that the virus is going to have a much greater and more prolonged impact in the US than was originally expected. This is mostly because of the patchy lockdowns and the state-by-state response. There have been no useful nation-wide directives

Security and Bitcoin

In times of crisis, investors typically abandon their search for a return on their capital and look instead for security.
Equity shares, especially in an emerging economy like South Africa are seen as being high-risk, high-return assets.
International investors are attracted to our government bonds and stocks because they see a high real return (after-inflation). The risk of investing

Cartrack Vs Mix Telematics

Two of the most interesting companies listed on the JSE are Cartrack (CTK) and Mix Telematics (MIX). Both companies are involved in providing remote fleet and asset management systems. Both companies started in South Africa recovering stolen vehicles and both have spread across the world expanding their client base and broadening their product options.
As listed shares, both companies have the distinct advantage

Recovery

In our article ("Bear Trend") on 13th March 2020 we said, "this bear trend is likely to be relatively short and sharp. Investors will begin to see that the virus has or is running its course in first world countries and, at some point in the next few months, they will re-enter the market as aggressive bargain-hunters. So, our expectation is that we will see a "V-bottom"

SA might be saved from Covid19

The advent of COVID19 may seem like an unmitigated disaster to private investors, but there a few reasons for us to have some hope.
The first is that our relatively warm weather is on our side. Apparently, this virus is happiest at around 3 degrees centigrade - which means that it thrives in the Northern hemisphere where that type of temperature is common during the winter. Here in South Africa, temperatures can fall that