The Confidential Report - April 2025
1 April 2025 By PDSNETAmerica
The S&P500 is being hammered by Trump’s continued insistence on introducing new tariffs. The latest tariff to rock the markets is 25% on all imported vehicles. To investors, it seems that every week brings new tariffs, and the future is very uncertain. The market combined that uncertainty with the relatively bad news on core inflation to take the S&P500 back down to 10% below its all-time record closing high on the 19th of February 2025 at 6144. Consider the chart:
As you can see from the chart, Trump has so far managed to engineer a 10% correction. He is keeping the S&P at these levels, despite the underlying bullish sentiment, by constantly changing his stance on various tariffs and adding new ones. The market just seems to get a handle on what he is doing when he changes his position again. To us, there seems little doubt that had Trump not begun this trade war, the S&P would, by now have reached further record highs.
In his most recent move Trump scotched a nascent recovery in markets with his unexpected 25% vehicle tariff. A large part of the problem is that nobody really knows what he will do next. Even he probably does not know. The worse-than-expected core inflation figures on Friday have now raised the spectre of a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve Bank despite Governor Jerome Powell’s attempt to calm the situation by saying that the inflation problem was “transitory”.
The combination of bad news caused investors to move quickly back to “risk-off” on Friday the 28th of March 2025. They slammed the S&P back 2% to end the session close to the support at its previous cycle low of 5521 made on the 13th of March this year.
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index came in at 2,8% in February 2025 – above economists’ projections of 2,7% - indicating that core inflation remains a stubborn problem for the Federal Reserve Bank. From an economic standpoint, the most important impact of Trump’s trade war is likely to be higher inflation so the raised core figures understandably made investors nervous.
Three weeks ago (7-3-25), the jobs number for February 2025 came in slightly worse than expected with 151 000 jobs created against an expected 170 000. The unemployment number ticked up to 4,1% leading markets to believe that the Fed had managed to cool the economy down sufficiently and that further interest rate reductions could be imminent. In our view, the creation of more than 150 000 jobs in February continues to show that the US economy is still growing, albeit at a slower pace. Despite relatively high interest rates and Trump’s erratic policies, businesses in America are still creating jobs and the unemployment level remains close to full employment levels.
Perhaps a greater threat to the US economy right now is the government’s debt. Despite cuts made by Musk’s department of government efficiency (DOGE) the debt level continues to rise at an alarming rate. The debt ceiling is now expected to be exceeded sometime between mid-July and early October this year according to the Bipartisan Policy Centre. Given their election promises, the Republicans are reluctant to increase the ceiling further and may have difficulty doing so since a number of conservative Republicans are against any further extensions.
The fiscal deficit for FY2024 was more than $1.8 trillion, and through the first four months of the government's fiscal 2025 year, it surged to $840 billion. While DOGE cost cutting efforts have dominated the headlines, the core drivers of the deficit remain largely untouched as the federal debt quickly approaches $37 trillion. Interest on the debt in FY2024 was $950 billion, which exceeded even defence spending of $826 billion (which was 70% of all defence spending by NATO countries).
The rapid shift towards risk-off can also be seen in two other charts – the rand and the gold price.
The Rand
The rand, because of the substantial volumes traded, has become the emerging market currency of choice for international traders and speculators. For this reason it tends to respond very quickly to shifts in sentiment from risk-on to risk-off and vice versa. The Trump announcement of a 25% tariff on all vehicle imports into America resulted in a shift to risk-off and an immediate drop in the rand/US dollar exchange rate to around R18.40 from R18.15.
Initially, Trump’s victory in the US elections resulted in a downward trend in the rand against the US$ which lasted until 10th January 2025 and a worst rate of R19.14. Since then the rand has been strengthening steadily and had reached R18.15 by last Thursday, the 27th of March 2025.
We do not believe that this latest tariff will stand the test of time and we are expecting Trump to do some back-pedalling in the near future – as he has done with some of the other tariffs that he has announced.
The move to R18.40 took the rand back to its downward trendline and was probably overdone, at least in the short term. So we are expecting the current pattern of slowly increasing rand strength to resume in due course.
Gold
Gold has a few industrial applications and, of course, it is used in the manufacture of jewellery – but mostly it is and always has been a store of value. One ounce of gold today will buy about the same number of cattle or chickens as it would have 5000 years ago in Egypt. Its purchasing power has remained more-or-less constant throughout history – through wars, famines, plagues and other disruptions.
As the ultimate store of value, gold also has a zero return. Holding gold does not pay any dividends, rent, or interest – and it does not add 10% to its weight every year – but it is eminently transportable and accepted throughout the world no matter what else is happening.
In times of relative crisis and political instability, the price of gold in paper currencies tends to rise despite the fact that, unlike US Treasury Bills, it offers no return. This is because the world’s smart investors know that in troubled times gold always holds its value so when they feel uncertain of the future, or are worried about the value of paper assets (such as shares, bonds, and currencies), they put more of their money into gold until stability returns.
If enough international investors are feeling uncomfortable with the direction that politics is taking, or they feel that paper assets are overvalued, then the price of gold will rise.
In our Confidential Report of March 2024 we drew your attention to the fact that the US dollar price of gold had broken above a key resistance level at $2060. Since then the price per ounce has risen about 50% and on Friday last week it reached a new all-time record high of $3082.88. Consider the chart.
Obviously, this rise is partly due to the various hot spots around the world like the Middle East and Ukraine and the possibility that they could devolve into a third World War. But it also reflects the fact that the equity markets of the world are at relatively high levels and therefore more at risk of a bear trend.
Our advice is that all South African private investors should hold about 10% of their wealth in Krugerrands. This is because we live in an emerging market where the political situation at any point in time is relatively volatile. We do not advise holding more than 10% because, as indicated above, gold does not pay a return, and the bulk of your wealth should be invested in assets which pay a return.
Ukraine
The decision by Trump to pause the supply of US aid and intelligence to Ukraine showed that he had changed US allegiance to support Russia. The move was designed to pressurise Zelensky into singing a cease fire – which, after consideration he did. Then it was up to Trump to get Putin to agree to the cease fire – which proved very difficult. In the meantime, Europe was and desperately is trying to increase production to fill the gap left by the US and could raise up to 800bn euros for Ukraine. The UK ordered 5000 light-weight missiles for Ukraine from a factory in Belfast – which had to triple its production.
Of course, the Russians violated the ceasefire immediately – as expected. Russia has also attacked in the Kursk region and has been successful in reducing the Ukrainian pocket to less than 200 square kilometres – down from 1300 square kilometres at its height last year. Obviously, Putin is trying to show that he is winning the war militarily to put him in a better position when negotiations finally get going.
So now we apparently have ceasefires in the Black Sea and against energy infrastructure – which both sides are ignoring. It is not clear what will happen next, but our sense of the situation is that Europe and other countries such as Australia and Canada, are intent on ensuring that the Ukrainians have what they need to continue prosecuting the war.
There has been much talk in various European countries about the possibility of sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine – and we believe that sooner or later this will happen. This is after all Europe’s war at the end of the day, and they cannot expect the Ukrainians to continue supply all the soldiers. Some or all of the members of the “Coalition of the Willing” seems almost certain to put boots on the ground sooner or later. Even if such troops are not directly engaged in the fighting, they could free up troops who are simply guarding border areas which are not currently in contention – such as the border between Ukraine and Belarus. That would enable Ukraine to use those forces to reduce the pressure in other areas like Pokrovsk.
In 2024 Ukraine produced 1,2m drones and this year (2025) they are planning to produce 4m drones. These drones blanket the battlefield and prevent Russia from advancing with either troops or vehicles. In December 2022, Russia was losing an average of 500 soldiers a day killed or wounded. In December 2024 that number had risen to 1500 soldiers lost per day. In total Russia is estimated to have lost 430 000 men in 2024 alone with 48240 lost in January of 2025. Ukraine has recently developed a cheap acoustic sensor system which finds and tracks Russian drones. This system has been deployed throughout the country. This demonstrates the Ukrainian ability to adapt rapidly and produce new technologies to counter the Russian threat.
Food inflation in Russia has surged this year with potatoes up 73% and butter up 30%. The true inflation figure since the war began is estimated to be 71,4% and not the much lower official figure. This impacts directly on the lives of ordinary Russians, especially when combined with the high level of interest rates and the unavailability of certain basics. The opposition to Putin is gradually gathering momentum and we believe that if Ukraine can continue holding the line, in time he will be replaced.
Political
There is a possibility that the US will decide, under the Trump administration, to replace the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) with a series of bi-lateral agreements with the individual countries. In this case South Africa may lose some or all of its tax-free opportunities in the US. The loss of our membership of AGOA will impact the economy, especially the motor industry which exports cars to the US – but the impact will probably not be as bad as has been feared. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all motor vehicle imports into the USA on the 27th of March 2025 which may affect us if it is implemented. AGOA allows member countries to export about 1800 products to the US duty-free. South Africa is seen as being important to many other African countries who export through this country rather than directly. If the US withdraws from Africa, the gap may well be filled by China. However, the appointment of the right-wing Brent Bozell III as the US ambassador to South Africa is not a good sign.
The decision by Minister of Health, Aaron Motsoaledi, to publish rules for the National Health Insurance (NHI) Act which completely ignore the suggestions of the various interest groups shows that the ANC still believes that can operate without taking into account the views of opposition parties. The legislation is already the subject of 4 separate legal actions – and the ANC have still said nothing about how it will be funded. The Act was hurriedly signed into law by President Ramaphosa immediately before the elections in May last year probably in an attempt to attract populist voters.
The revised budget now has two VAT increases of half a percent taking that rate up to 16% over 2 years. The first of 0,5% VAT increase is proposed to commence from 1st May 2025. It also has no adjustment for “bracket creep” which means individuals will pay more tax as they fall into higher tax brackets. Social spending has also been reduced by R15,1bn. SARS has received an extra R4bn in order to enable it to employ more people to go after money already owed by various taxpayers. For the first time in 30 years, the ANC has been forced to consider the wishes of other parties. The budget is still subject to debate in Parliament and not all issues have been agreed. So, we can expect further drama as the various parties attempt to find each other. Overall, however, we believe that the process has been a very good one in which compromise has been the order of the day – and that is exactly what the South African electorate wanted when they cut the ANC’s support to 40% in the last election. The DA is still trying to get the ANC to amend their position on land expropriation, basic education and the national health insurance Act. On the 25th of March 2025, Action SA, which has six seats in the National Assembly, said that it would not support the ANC’s revised budget which includes a 0,5% increase in VAT this year. If the revised budget is not passed on the 2nd of April 2025 then the government can continue to function working on the previous year’s funding allocations. Notably, consumer confidence fell heavily in the 1st quarter of 2025 on concern over the budget difficulties within the government of national unity (GNU) and the US decision to block aid funding to South Africa. The ANC has also approached MK and the EFF to seek their support for the revised budget. If the budget is passed with MK and EFF support the continuation of the GNU will be seriously in doubt.
The review of the budget, which was forced mainly by the DA, has uncovered significant wasted expenditure in government. A review has established that as much as R12bn a year could be saved by shutting down under-performing projects. Apparently, there have been 240 spending reviews, the results of which have mostly not been implemented. There are, for example, a large number of labour market activation programs across the government which need to be rationalised and consolidated with significant cost savings. The Treasury found potential savings of over R40bn in 2021 and 2022 in a variety of different government clusters. Clearly, if some of these savings had been implemented, it would have obviated the need for the VAT increases proposed by the ANC in the budget which the DA rejected.
The government’s decision to pay ArcelorMittal’s wage bill for the next year to keep its long steel plant operating is incorrect in our view. By doing this the government is interfering in the free market and propping up a business which is making losses at a significant cost to the taxpayer. If ArcelorMittal cannot produce steel cheaply enough to compete with overseas imports, then it should be allowed to close the plant even if that results in job losses. There is always a cost when government intervenes in the private sector. In this case, the cash-strapped government is making its own financial position worse than it already is to prop up a business which will almost certainly fail in time anyway.
Economy
Inflation was 3,2% in year to the end of February 2025 – the same as in January’s figure. However, the inflation figure for the month was 0,9% - sharply higher than January’s 0,3% mainly because of higher fuel, food and financial services costs. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, was 3,4% for the year and 1,1% for the month. Fuel prices increased by 3,9% because of the 82c per litre increase in the price of petrol. Food was 2,8% more expensive with cereals up 3,9% and fruit up 6,8%. Meat was unchanged and vegetables actually fell slightly. The maize price index was up 10,6% and samp was up 18,7% - mainly due to the mid-summer drought conditions, which impacted cereal crops. Overall, inflation is expected to be 4,3% in 2025 which gives the monetary policy committee (MPC) room to reduce interest rates further in due course, despite their decision to hold the repo rate steady at 7,5% on Thursday the 20th of March 2025.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has indicated that the government’s assumption about growth in the South African economy for the current fiscal year is overly optimistic. The government is projecting growth of 1.8%, while PwC estimates it is likely to be closer to 1.1%. If PwC's projection is accurate, the lower growth could result in an R18 billion shortfall in government revenue, making the revised budget impractical without further spending cuts or tax increases. While PwC’s GDP growth estimate may be conservative, it appears likely that tax revenue will fall short of the budgeted amount, leading to a deficit.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0,6% in the 4th quarter of last year – up from the 3rd quarter’s revised contraction of 0,1%. The contraction in the 3rd quarter was caused by a revised contraction of 19,7% in the agriculture sector due to the mid-summer drought and various animal diseases. In the 4th quarter agriculture saw a massive turnaround to grow by 17,2% driven by improved crop and animal product yields. Fruit production improved because of more water and a stable electricity supply. Agricultural exports increased 3% to $13,7bn. Manufacturing contracted by 0,6% and mining contracted by 0,2%. Household expenditure grew by 1% and government spending fell by 0,8%.
BankservAfrica’s nominal take-home pay increased marginally, reaching R18,241 in the period ending 28 February 2025, up slightly from January 2025’s R18,141. However, this figure is substantially higher than that recorded in February 2024, which stood at R15,983. In effect, real take-home pay—after adjusting for inflation—rose by 10.7% compared to the same period last year, following a January increase of 12.8%. These figures underscore the significant benefit consumers are enjoying from the current low inflation environment in South Africa, with inflation projected to be just 3.6% in 2025—the lowest in five years. At the same time, interest rates remain high, and the revised budget includes a 0.5% increase in VAT without any relief from bracket creep for taxpayers. Furthermore, most large mining companies have secured 6% wage increases through multi-year agreements to ensure that workers receive a real rise in earnings, while average nominal salary increases are around 5.3%—approximately 1.7% above the inflation rate. This overall improvement in earnings is reflected in retail spending, which increased by 5.9% in the four months ending the 31st of January 2025.
Retail sales increased by 7% in the year to the end of January 2025 – well ahead of economists’ forecasts. Consumer confidence has improved due to low inflation and lower interest rates. Take-home pay was up 12,8% in the year to January against a much lower inflation rate, meaning that consumers were much better off in real terms. The two-pot retirement system also released about R40bn into the economy driving up consumption. We expect the economy to improve steadily in 2025 and 2026 due to the government of national unity and the end of loadshedding.
Retail sales of fast‐moving consumer goods (FMCG) increased by 3.4% year‐on‐year in 2024, mainly due to higher prices rather than any increase in volumes. Branded goods sales grew by 7%, as consumers focused on finding value for money by taking advantage of promotions and discounts. There has been a noticeable shift toward bulk buying to save money. Sales over the Christmas season were up 9%, with food and liquor accounting for almost 60% of the total spend. Consumer budgets are clearly under strain, with shoppers concentrating on essentials. Despite this, Black Friday sales were up 7%, with unit sales rising by 12%.
Manufacturing production fell by approximately 3.3% in January 2025—following a 1.2% decline in December 2024. Production in the chemicals, petroleum, plastics, and rubber sectors dropped by just over 9%, while food and beverages declined by 3.2%. Motor vehicles, parts, and accessories were down by just over 10%. Ongoing challenges in rail and port logistics continue to dampen overall manufacturing output. Given these trends, manufacturing production must increase to create more jobs and alleviate unemployment. Moreover, the Government of National Unity (GNU) must overcome its internal differences and pass a budget designed to stimulate economic growth.
The S&P Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) improved slightly in February 2024 to 49 from January’s figure of 47,4, but this still shows that the economy is shrinking. Local demand remained weak while exports were also slightly down partly due to the political unrest in Mozambique. The uncertainty coming out of America with Trump’s impending trade war has dampened enthusiasm. Business conditions have improved since loadshedding ended, the GNU was appointed, and interest rates began falling. The Reserve Bank’s leading index has been moving up to reflect this.
The announcement by the European Union (EU) of a R94bn aid package to South Africa is designed to compensate for America’s withdrawal of aid under Trump. The aid was presented at the G20 meeting which South Africa is hosting and which America has shunned. South Africa is the EU’s largest trading partner in Africa with about R100bn worth of trade each year and trade with the EU is up 42% since 2016. The EU also accounts for almost half of South Africa’s foreign direct investment (FDI). America’s isolationist policies are forcing other countries to seek alternative markets and trade partners. A closer financial relationship with the EU can only be good for this country.
Capital expenditure in the mining sector declined in the 4th quarter of 2024 by 9,6% to just 0,1% year-on-year. Platinum group metals (PGM) were worst hit with Northam reducing capex by 25% and Impala cutting 58%. Mines are not making good profits and so are cutting back on capital expenditure. For the past 5 years mineral exploration in South Africa has been almost non-existent. Over time this lack of exploration will mean that the mining industry will shrink and contribute less to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year. Mining GDP grew by only 0,3% in 2024 and actually shrank in 2023.
Motor vehicle sales rose 7,3% in the year to the 28th of February 2025. New car sales were up 9,5%. The cuts in interest rates have helped to make vehicles more affordable. Car sales were up 16,8% and light commercial vehicles were down 11,4%. The jump in car sales might have been due to fears of a 2% increase in VAT with buyers trying to get in ahead of price increases. Export sales were down by 8,6% year-on-year due to weaker demand.
The agreement between Transnet and the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) for an increase of 6% this year and next year places additional stress on the company which already reported making a R2,2bn loss in the six months to the 30th of September 2024. The increase is almost double South Africa’s current inflation rate of 3,6%. In our view, the government deficit will continue to increase until state owned enterprises like Transnet reach the point where they are giving wage increases in line with or below the inflation rate.
An increase in international tourism in the year to the end of January 2025 has resulted in a sharp 12,1% rise in hotel occupancy and follows an 11,8% rise in the last quarter of last year. Hotel income rose by 24,6% resulting in a 16,7% increase in accommodation income. Stats SA said the number of unit nights sold rose by 4,5% and the average income per night rose by 11,7%. The increase in tourism income boosts employment and contributes to gross domestic product (GDP).
The Eskom price increase of 12,74% came into effect on the 1st of April 2025 as an increase of 11,32% to municipalities who then add a premium which means that some users will pay less than 12,74% and others will pay more. It is estimated that a household that uses 250kWh may pay as much as 37% more than they were previously paying. Households using 600 kWh will pay 28% more and a household using 900kWh will only 6% more. This means that poorer households will effectively carry the brunt of the increase. Clearly, the increase itself is absurd given that the price of thermal coal has fallen to about one third of what it was 18 months ago and about 80% of the power which Eskom produces comes from coal-fired power stations.
Commodities
GOLD – Gold closed above $3000 for the first time ever on Thursday the 13th of March 2025, which is equivalent to R54473.90 per ounce. The Krugerrand reached R54500. The rise has been caused by concerns over the Trump tariff war, which is seen as being inflationary, and the war in Ukraine. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on European wine and spirit exports and Europe’s tariff on whiskey exports from America pushed the metal to a record intraday high of $3004. Gold is the ultimate safe-haven currency in the world and always retains its value in times of political instability and war. Obviously, South African gold shares like Harmony, DRD and Gold Fields will benefit.
COPPER – The copper price rising is partly due to the proposed new Trump tariffs. America produces only about half of the copper that it uses, and the probability of reciprocal tariffs has pushed price up in the short term. Three companies listed on the JSE account for 95% of the JSE general mining sector's combined market cap – Glencore, Anglo and BHP, all of which mine copper. Copper is one of the metals vital in the world’s transition to renewable energy. BHP predicts that copper demand will increase by as much as 70% by the year 2050. The price has gone up by about 21% over the past month. Copper output from Chile, the world’s largest producer, fell by 24% from December 2024 to January 2025.
STEEL – Loadshedding and persistent above-inflation price hikes by Eskom together with Transnet’s logistics problems have increased the cost of doing business in South Africa and pushed some industries to the point where they are no longer profitable – leading to a loss of jobs. The prime example is ArcelorMittal South Africa’s (AMSA) decision in January to close its long steel plants in Newcastle and Vereeniging because they can no longer compete. Suddenly now the government is worried about the loss of 3500 jobs at these plants and adjacent industries. The government’s response has been to look at revising their tariff structure on a wide variety of steel products. They seek to shut off or impede the import of cheap steel products which compete directly with AMSA. In our opinion, they are looking in the wrong place. Additional tariffs will push up the price of steel products to South African consumers and so be inflationary. South African consumers will pay higher prices for steel products in order to maintain a steel industry which has been made unprofitable by the high cost of electricity and the inefficiencies of our national rail and port infrastructure.
Bitcoin
In the past we have repeatedly advised private investors not to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies – mainly because what value they have is entirely based on perceptions and there are no fundamentals. The only way to judge perceptions is by using technical analysis. Consider the chart of Bitcoin over the past six months:
You can see that after Trump’s victory in the US elections, Bitcoin rose sharply on a general feeling of euphoria. It reached a peak on the 17th of December 2024 – the same day that Elon Musk’s Tesla shares reached their peak. After that it completed a descending triple top – which is probably one of the most bearish formations in technical analysis – and it began to trend downwards.
We believe that the downward trend will continue as large smart investors seek to reduce their exposure.
Our advice remains the same: If you have it, sell it. If you don’t have it, don’t buy it.
Companies
ATTACQ (ATT)
Attacq is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which owns Mall of Africa and is developing the Waterfall City complex. Like most REITs, Attacq fell heavily during COVID-19, finally reaching a low point of 300c on the 30th of September 2020. Since then, it has been recovering. In its results for the six months to the 31st of December 2024 the company reported distributable income up 49,1% with a loan-to-value of just 25,9%. As you can see from the chart below, in the second half of last year the share moved sideways and was relatively uninteresting. Then at the beginning of January this year it began to move in a new upward trend. Recognising this, we added it to the Winning Shares List on the 25th of January 2024 at a price of 964c. It has subsequently moved up to 1297c – a gain of 34,4%.
We expect Attacq to continue performing well as the South African economy recovers from loadshedding and as it benefits from the Government of National Unity (GNU). This is an extremely low-risk and well-managed property company.
SOUTHERN SUN (SSU)
Southern Sun describes itself as a hotel and entertainment business. It split off from Tsogo Sun in order to unlock shareholder value. In a trading update for the year to the 31st of March 2025 the company said that occupancy had improved to 60,7% and that the room rate had climbed by 5,1%. This company is benefiting from the significant rise in overseas tourism which has come about since the DA took over control of certain key functions.
As you can see, the share was moving sideways until April last year and then it entered a new upward trend. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 17th of May 2024 at a price of 555c. It has subsequently moved up to 836c – a gain of just over 50%. As the economy continues to respond to better management, we expect this trend to continue.
PREMIER (PMR)
Premier was spun out of Brait in March 2023 as a food producer. It operates bakeries, wheat mills, maize mills and manufacturing plants making a variety of food products and from biscuits to animal feeds and pasta. It has 25 distribution depots which move these products to retailers. Food is not usually a very exciting investment, but Premier shares, after an extended sideways market broke up in June 2024. We added them to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 21st of August 2024 at 7635c. It has subsequently moved up to 13000c and in recent days has been testing resistance at that level. Consider the chart:
On Friday last week the share produced a “hammer” formation which usually means that it is going to move up further. We expect Premier to continue to perform well.
ADVTECH (ADH)
Advtech is by now well-known to most private investors and a provider of education up to advanced levels. The business has been growing steadily although like most listed companies it experienced a downward trend in 2020 due to COVID-19. In its latest results for the year to the 31st of December 2024 the company reported revenue up 8% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 16%. The company has a policy of buying back and cancelling its ordinary shares thereby steadily increasing its net asset value (NAV). Its main listed competitors are Curro and Stadio. It offers the private investor a steady pattern of growth in a very stable industry. Consider the chart:
As you can see, we added Advtech to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 14th of August 2023 at a price of 1975c – so it has been on the list for 18 months. During that time the share has appreciated by 64,2%. In other words it has been a steady performer which has paid out regular and increasing dividends rising from 15c per share in 2019 to 101c in 2024. We expect that it will continue to perform well.
STADIO (SDO)
Stadio specialises in offering tertiary education and a range of post matric courses. Education has the advantage that customer generally pay for their training in advance which means that the company has a strong positive cash flow and almost no working capital problems. The business is capital intensive with investment in campuses and colleges, so gearing can become a problem. In its results for the year to the 31st of December 2024, Stadio reported revenue up 14% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 28%. Technically, the share has been in an upward trend since June 2024. Consider the chart:
We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 29th of June 2024 at a price of 525c. It has since risen to 751c – a gain of 43% in 9 months. Its dividends have risen from 4,7c per share in 2021 to last year’s 15,1c. We believe that it will continue to perform well.
DATATEC (DTC)
Datatec is an international IT and communications company operating in at least 50 countries. It operates in the United States, South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. In a trading update for the year to the 28th of February 2025 the company reported gross profit up 6% on the back of increased demand especially for cyber-security and cloud infrastructure. The share has been in a strong upward trend since August 2024. Consider the chart:
We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on the 28th of October 2024 at a price of 3950c. It has since moved up to 5445c – a gain of 37,85% in 5 months. We expect it to continue to perform well.
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