Monthly Archives: August 2018

The Bull Trend Resumes

A week ago on the 22nd of August, we suggested in an article that the S&P would break up to a new record high above 2872. It has done that emphatically – rising to another record and breaking above the 2900 level last night to close at 2914.

We also suggested in that same article that this would cause our blue chip shares to follow suit and we particularly mentioned Capitec, Dischem and the Resilient group, all of which have been excessively depressed by recent adverse reporting. All of those shares have followed Wall Street up strongly and look to go higher. Read More

Mental Posture

What separates an effective private investor from one who loses money continuously? The difference is what we call “mental posture”. To be a successful private investor you need to have a good mental posture. But what is mental posture? It is your emotional response to the share market in general – and to your shares in particular.

What are you feeling? Because how you are feeling will determine what decisions you make.

You may think that you are well in control of your emotions. You may consider yourself to be rational and objective in your investment decision-making. You may think that your emotions have no influence over your decisions – but they do. Read More

S&P Touches Record High

On the 9th of July 2018 and previously on the 6th of April 2018 we suggested in articles that the S&P had reached the bottom of its correction at 2581 and found strong support at the level. We also suggested that the strength of that support indicated that the correction had probably found its lowest point (2581) and would move up to break its all-time record high at 2872. Now the chart of this correction looks like this:

The 4th Correction

S&P500 Index January 2018 to August 2018 – Chart by ShareFriend Pro (Click to Enlarge Image)

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The Rand Tanks

The rand has collapsed from R13.38 to the US dollar to levels as low as R15.26 – in less than two days. It has subsequently stabilised at around R14.50.

South Africans will naturally think that this has been caused by something that the government has done or that President Ramaphosa has said, but in this case they would be mostly wrong.

The current weakness in the rand has been caused by a sudden sharp move from risk-on to risk-off by the international investment community – mainly as a result of President Trump’s decisions to impose sanctions on Russia and continue with his trade war, mainly against China. This, combined with the troubles in Turkey, saw both the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira plummet. And that caused a general sell-off of emerging market assets – including those in South Africa. Emerging markets are seen as being the most vulnerable to a global trade war. Read More

Bitcoin Continues to Unravel

In December last year we ran an article entitled “The Bitcoin Bubble” and there we suggested that the exponential nature of the Bitcoin price was clearly indicative of a bubble and we advised that if you owned them you should sell and if you didn’t you should stay away from them. We published a further article in May showing how the price of Bitcoin had halved in the six months that followed  – and pointing out some of the simple technical indications of a declining market. Read More