PDSnet Articles

Are we now in a Bear Trend?


The president has delivered a shattering blow to the South African economy. Just as the economy was beginning to show definite signs of renewed optimism, South African consumers have been frightened into “pulling their heads back into their shells”. When consumers and businesses are scared, they typically stop spending and conserve cash to cope with whatever the new uncertainties may occur. This will reduce the sales of white goods and big ticket items like motor vehicles. It will result in major investment projects being curtailed or abandoned and it will result in consumers “trading down” to cheaper products.

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Political In-Fighting


Normally, in a healthy country, politics is not a major factor in the share market, but in the past year, since “Nenegate”, it has become a dominant factor in South Africa. The battle between President Zuma and his Finance Minister has been directly reflected in the strength of the rand. Zuma’s final decision to oust Gordhan and the subsequent downgrading below investment grade by Standard & Poors has sent the rand tumbling – but perhaps not as badly as might have been expected and certainly not as badly as after Nene was removed.

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Anchor Group


There are more and more signs that the South African economy is turning around, not least of which is the consistent strengthening of the rand against the dollar. Apparently, last year in September about 75% of analysts believed that South Africa would endure a ratings down-grade. This year that number has dropped to less than 20% – which shows a significant turn-around in sentiment towards this economy, especially by overseas investors.

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The Shopping Mall Implosion


One of the most intriguing things about living in the modern world is the massive impact that technology is having on our lives. A few short years ago, smart phones did not exist – now almost everyone has one. As a private investor, you need to think about how this, and other technology innovations, could impact the shares which you invest in.

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The Exponential Bull


A little while ago (“Upside Target” 4-12-16), we drew attention to the fact that the S&P500 index had an amazing forward “horizontal count” (using the “Point & Figure” charting method) – based on breaking upwards out of its lengthy sideways market. Without giving a time frame, this horizontal count projected that the S&P would reach 3027 – a 38% rise from where it was then at about 2212. So far, since then, it has climbed about 7,5% to 2378.

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