PDSnet Articles

The Rand

The currency of a country is like the shares of a listed company. If the company is expected to do well and make profits, then its shares will go up – and vice versa. The same applies to a currency. If the country is perceived as being well-managed and doing well, then its currency will strengthen against other currencies – and vice versa. Read More

The Confidential Report – July 2017

When you buy a share, you are in the business of predicting the future. You are saying, “I am buying this share because I expect it to go up”. The accuracy or otherwise of your prediction will determine whether your investment is profitable or not. And the only way to predict the future is to study the past. There is no other way. The only reason that you know that the sun will rise tomorrow is because you have seen it happen before. If you did not have that experience, you would not be able to make that prediction with any confidence. It would simply be a guess. Forecasting is not an exact science. Predictions can never be certainties. Indeed, investment is not about certainties – it is about probabilities. A sound investment is one which has a better than 50% probability of going up. Any probability less than that is a gamble where the odds are stacked against you. Read More

Market Overview

The South African investment environment is never boring. The past week has seen many developments which are having, or may have, an impact on the share market. Most of them are local, but some are overseas.

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The Confidential Report – June 2017

The successive new record highs on Wall Street since last month have motivated us to set down our underlying philosophy and understanding of where the stock markets of the world are right now, in the context of where they have been in the past. We believe that, without the framework that we set out here, it is difficult to make sense out of what is happening in the markets day to day.

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