Monthly Archives: January 2018

The Bigger Fool


On 18th December last year we wrote an article about the acceleration of the S&P500 index called “The 3rd Acceleration”. In that article, we drew attention to the remarkable acceleration of the S&P500 index since the beginning of 2017 and especially since September 2017. We identified three trendlines, each one steeper than the previous one. Since the start of 2018, however, there is a new, even steeper trendline which should probably be called the “4th Acceleration”. Read More

The Rand and Ramaphosa


In our previous article on Steinhof and EOH, we discussed the fact that private investors seldom have enough information to make investment decisions when events move quickly in the share market – as they did with Steinhof and EOH. We suggested that the answer to this dilemma was to watch the charts because those people who do have inside information will inevitably trade to take advantage – and their activities will be visible to everyone in the price and volume patterns of the share. This makes technical analysis an essential item in the private investor’s tool-box. Read More

Why Technical Analysis is Vital


Investors (even institutional fund managers) usually do not have access to sufficient fundamental information to make well-informed decisions, especially when events move quickly in the stock market. For example, when a solid heavy-weight institutional share, like Steinhof or EOH, suddenly off-loads a significant percentage of its market capitalisation. In both these cases, disturbing news emerged that their financials might not be as reliable as previously thought but nobody knows quite what is going on – except perhaps for the few insiders who are involved. Read More

2018 Will Be Better


The year just past was full of uncertainties – an extremely difficult year for private investors to assess. In the background was the general recovery of the world economy and its impact on our commodity prices. In the foreground was the looming ANC Elective Conference and the nail-biting uncertainties of South African politics.

The ANC conference is behind us now and South Africans generally are celebrating the unexpected Christmas present of Ramaphosa’s win. Of course, he is still in a very delicate position and the war is not yet over – but a very important battle has been won. Read More